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 Post subject: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:04 pm 
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[b]INTERVIEW 4[/b]

Sarah: "How will they dismantle our hard currency?"

Dr. Neruda: "There will be a gradual de-valuation of the stock markets worldwide. Americans in particular have become accustomed to easy money production within the stock markets, as well as lavish lifestyles. This will not be permitted to continue indefinitely. Recessions will occur in waves until the value of currency is called into question.


[b]BLOOMBERG Columnists[/b]

The U.S. dollar is no longer, in our opinion is no longer, (seen) as a stable currency and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time,'' Fan said, speaking in English, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``So the real issue is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more manageable reference, say euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified systems.''

Paul Donovan, London-based senior global economist at UBS AG, seemed to speak for many traders and investors when he said: `[b]`This in fact is a scenario we consider to be highly likely[/b].'' Certainly more likely than, say, China letting the yuan trade freely.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... BBmwvtNuxA


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:42 am 
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Solaris,
this is timely for us U.S. Americans to think about. I think we are subtley being prepared to switch to a diffent currency, it would make sense that it is the Euro, but maybe what ever is the next step from that. The money is changing, they have been trying to get us used to coin dollars but the first design was stupid, could easily be mistaken for quarters to anyone not paying attention. (or maybe that was on purpose too) The new design is better, and the paper money is being changed too. But the thing that makes me think it is imminent is the quarters. They are being made in a way to encourage collecting them rather than spending them, each state gets a different design.
Is the UK using euros or still using pounds etc? Canadian money is being devalued, but I dn't know what else is going on with it.

_________________
"Digressions, objections, delight in mockery, carefree mistrust are signs of health; everything unconditional belongs in pathology." Friedrich Nietzsche
"Pretend you are enlightened and live in peace." Indigo


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:28 pm 
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By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru -The Daily Reckoning

http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1123078062.php

- As my hands are permanently clenched into fists of rage, I am typing this week´s newsletter by holding a pencil between my teeth and laboriously pecking the letters out, tap (pause) tap (pause) tap. It all started innocently enough, as all I was doing was reading the paper, casually checking for the usual photo advertisements of pretty ladies modeling underwear or bathing suits to get the old heart started, and it was a slow day. Suddenly, my heart went "urk!" when I saw that the new total for the national debt, the honest-to-goodness total net debt that the federal government has racked up over the years, and I am suddenly afraid. Very afraid.

Then I saw that the stock market has been going up ever since China devalued the dollar! The stock market goes up, even when oil is going up! This is insane! Now I am even more afraid!

By this time I am on the floor, completely paralyzed from fear. My wife, who has not received the final paperwork on the new, big life insurance policy she took out on me, is scrambling to find some good news that will reverse my horrifying condition, lying there on the floor, covered in coffee where she spilled it all over me.

Flipping on CNBC and frantically scanning the Wall Street Journal, she says "Oil is up, just like you said!" I start to relax. Then she says "Gold is up, just like you said!" I am now able to shake the stiffness from my mighty Mogambo shoulders (MMS) and slowly rise to my feet. But my hands are, alas, useless, as is my brain.

- You can always count on Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, to tell you the real ramifications of the revaluation of the Chinese yuan. And sure enough, he says "Some have incorrectly argued that a rising yuan will make American exports more competitive in China, and therefore benefit our economy. Such a simplistic analysis is flawed, as its proponents fail to comprehend the basics of international trade. The only reason our exports become more competitive is that we will be selling them for fewer yuan. In other words, we will now be forced to pay the Chinese more yuan to purchase their products, but in return receive less yuan for the products we sell them. The bottom line is, paying more and getting less is a bad deal for Americans." Exactly!

"For Americans, the opposite will be true. This change will result in reduced purchasing power, lower real incomes, and a falling standard of living. The Chinese will no longer be subsidizing American consumers and borrowers with low import prices and interest rates. Without these supports, consumer prices and interest rates will rise, credit and the economy will contract, stock and real estate prices will fall, service sector jobs will be lost, the federal budget deficit will worsen, and the dollar’s decline will accelerate.

"As credit contracts and interest rates surge, home prices will plunge, wiping out trillions of dollars of paper equity for millions of American homeowners. However, while the equity will vanish, the mortgage debt will not only remain, but be that much more costly to service. Imagine the implications for the U.S. economy and dollar-denominated financial assets, should this financial nightmare become a reality."

Perhaps this has something to do with Dan Denning, with Strategic Alliance, writing "Good-paying, white-collar, ´Ward Cleaver´ jobs disappear." But it is not only jobs, but everything else is in danger of disappearing, too! For example, he postulates that we will also see where "Soaring health care expenses go unpaid. Property prices plunge in the wake of panic selling. Rampant price inflation sends the cost of food and energy soaring to new highs. Police, fire, and highway crews shut down services in strapped states and cities. Countless schools close for lack of funding. City and state governments default on their bonds. One ´safe´ pension fund after another goes the way of Enron."

Sound gloomy to you? Well, imagine how I feel, thinking this kind of stuff all day! But do you ever think about ME and my life of gloom and sorrow? No! It´s always about you, you, you, isn´t it? Always about you! But the ugly reality is that these are the kinds of things that have always happened at the collapse of bubble economies, and they will happen every time a bubble economy collapses. Lots of money has to be lost, as that is the nature of bubbles, and economies do not ever seem to prosper when everybody is bankrupt, and miserable, and homicidal, and people are stringing more expensive barbed wire around the inside perimeter, and having ammunition and supplies delivered by truck because your car can´t hold that much stuff.

Mr. Denning thinks I am not being forceful enough, and so he shoulders me aside, and takes over the microphone and says "Please understand that these are not alternatives. As Peter Peterson, former White House economic adviser, says, ´Absent a colliding comet or an alien invasion, this will surely happen.´ There is no way for American investors to avoid this event. They can only choose how to protect themselves from the outcome."

Well, I would say that guys who were long in the categories of food and energy and commodities WILL "protect themselves" as their prices will be "soaring to new heights." And food and energy are only two of the items in the category of "commodities." The wise investor´s ears should prick up ("poink!") at the mere mention of things whose prices will be "soaring to new heights." That´s the whole point of investing, isn´t it?

And the gains in corn are sown (cute pun, huh?) by Congress, as part of the new energy bill, which contains all kinds of gigantic tax credits and deductions for all kinds of things, including ethanol, which is made from the sugar in some foods. Ergo, corn will do well for three reasons. 1) The Chinese have a stronger yuan, making corn cheaper for them to buy, 2) there is a drought all over the damned place, 3) and now Congress has made it financially advantageous to also compete for corn. So, the Mogambo Tip o´ The Day (MTOTD) is relayed when I reach out and place my hand on your shoulders, look into your eyes, and say "Buy corn." Fade out, and you are left with an indelible memory, so that years and years later it will pop into your mind as you are scratching around in the dirt looking for bugs to eat, and you will wail in woe because you did not follow the path of the Mogambo (POTM).

And, lest I forget, two other items in that "commodities" category, that aforementioned category of things whose prices are soon to be "soaring", are silver and gold, which are a hell of a lot handier to buy and store than corn, soybeans, wheat and oil.

- John Crudele of The New York Post reports that “American Auto Association calculates that gasoline prices have risen 21.5% since this same time last year. But the government swears gas prices are only 6.9% higher over the year." What a discrepancy! The upshot is “That little trick alone saved the CPI from being 0.53% points higher."

And it is not just about gas, as he goes on to write, “Despite all you’ve read, the government thinks housing is only 2.2% higher over the past year. Others, including the National Association of Realtors, calculate that housing is up at least 12.5%.”

In short, your government has screwed things up royally, but instead of fixing the problems they caused, they prefer to lie about it.

But they don´t have to lie about it if they can keep it secret. Paul K. McMasters, who is the "First Amendment ombudsman at the Freedom Forum´s First Amendment Center" says that the "latest figures released by the federal Information Security Oversight Office show that government workers are manufacturing secrets at the rate of 125 a minute, or 15.6 million a year. At the same time, they are declassifying fewer secrets, and the president is extending classification authority to more departments and agencies. Layered on top of those secrets are an even greater number of pseudo-secrets labeled ´sensitive but unclassified´ that, too, are beyond the reach of the public."

What makes this so bad is that "The problem with excessive government secrecy is that it is a refuge for incompetence -- or worse. It is a policy reeking of desperation -- or worse. It is reflexive rather than deliberate, defeatist rather than courageous. And in the end it hides not only what our leaders know but, more important, what they don´t know."

And in saying that, this is the perfect time for Axel Merk of the Merkfund.com to remind us of the immortal words of George Bernard Shaw, who famously said, "You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

- I have been reminded that I have been somewhat remiss in pointing out the anomaly in the price of silver, and why that makes silver so undervalued that it is a screaming screaming screaming buy. But I was spared the trouble of getting up off of my fat butt to correct that mistake when I read an essay entitled "Copper, Oil, & Silver" by Jason Hommel

He writes "Not all commodities move up at the same time, so this means there is the opportunity to invest in those that have lagged behind, such as silver and/or copper. It is important to look at charts of ratios between commodities."

The first one out of his mouth is about silver! "In 1980, at the prior peak prices for both silver and oil, oil hit about $43/barrel, and silver hit $50/oz. In other words, an ounce of silver was worth more than a barrel of oil."

Even at the recent low prices of silver and oil "silver languished at $5/oz., and oil bottomed out at $10/barrel, maintaining the 2:1 ratio."

The upshot? "Using those high/low prices as guides, and given the price of oil today, silver should be somewhere between $30 to $60 per ounce! Either that, or oil should be worth between $7 and $14/barrel. But which is more realistic?"

His point is that "if you are bullish on oil, you should invest in silver instead, because in the long run, silver will surely outperform oil prices as the ratios return to historic ratios of 2:1 or 1:1."

So silver, currently selling at seven bucks (and change) per ounce, should be, by historical precedent, selling at somewhere between $30 and $60 per freaking ounce, you say? Which works out to (at $7.30 per ounce) a gain of 411% and 822%? Wow! A home run! Let me at it! There are not many guarantees in this world, but the dead-bang certainty that silver will rise in price faster than the rate of inflation seems to be one of them!

Even by its rough historical average ratio of 16:1 against gold, it should be selling higher than twenty-five bucks an ounce right freaking now!

And don´t get me started on the shortage of physical silver in the world, or the blatant corruption and fraud that is apparently rampant on the COMEX exchange, which is so bullish for silver in its OWN right that you don´t even NEED any of this ratio-to-oil or ratio-to-gold crap! And so here is another Mogambo Tip O´ The Day (MTOTD), where I reach out my arm and put my hand on your shoulder, and look into your eyes and say "Buy silver."

And then you say "What the hell are you talking about? A minute ago you were telling me to buy corn. Now you are telling me to buy silver! I am confused and your smell is making it really unpleasant to be here!"

I smile at the reference to the olfactory sense, and make a mental note to put into your Permanent Record how you are a rude little bastard, which will make it harder for you to enroll in the Mogambo University, where everybody gets straight A´s by just sitting around bitching and whining about the idiots in charge of things, and how they are screwing it ALL up. But I smile inscrutably, and I look into your eyes, and say only "Okay. Buy corn AND silver."

As you turn around to stomp out of the room in justified disgust, I suddenly grow angry at your insolence, and I grab your shoulder and spin you around, and start yelling into your face "And gold! And soybeans! And wheat! And pork! And manganese! The one underlying theme, in case you ain´t noticed, is commodities, Jack! Commodities! Now, go make a fortune in commodities and make us all proud of you!"

And it is not just me, Mr. Fry and a lot of other people who have an opinion about this, but also Puru Saxena, who was specifically asked what will be "the best investment for the next ten years?" Without missing a beat, we get the reply, "Commodities. Why have I chosen commodities out of all the assets? For the simple reason that in 2001, commodities were the cheapest they had ever been in the history or capitalism."

The cheapest they have ever been! Ever!

_________________
"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:31 pm 
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Continuing, "Let us take a look at the most important commodity - oil. Over the past 35 years, there has not been a single major oil discovery anywhere in the world! Global production is peaking and there is no additional supply. Meanwhile, demand for oil continues to rise especially in the emerging world where populations are huge and per-capita consumption of oil is still extremely low. As global demand rises and supply remains tight, oil prices will continue to surge."

I jump to my feet and excitedly exclaim "See? I told you that oil was going to keep going up!" As everyone appears irritated at my rude interruption, I hurriedly sit back down, chastised. Now that I am no longer "creating a disturbance," the class now learns that some commodities are already in a bull market, as "So far, industrial commodities such as metals and energy have done exceptionally well." The best part (from an investor´s perspective) and the worse part (from a consumer´s perspective) "is that "agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, wheat and orange juice haven´t gone up as much and are still close to their all-time lows adjusted for inflation."

But once again, our old friend gold is alluded to, as we read "Furthermore, I expect gold and silver to outperform industrial metals over the coming years. We now live in an era where inflation is the norm. Fed Governor ´Helicopter´ Bernanke comes to mind. Despite what the mainstream media says the ´deflation threat´ is not a real concern, but only a smokescreen, which allows central bankers to continue printing more money for their own benefit. In today´s world, where paper currencies are only empty promises backed by nothing, I expect all of them to keep losing value against time-honored wealth - gold."

And speaking of gold, from BFIConsluting.com we learn that "The World Gold Council recently released supply-and-demand statistics for the first quarter of 2005. Demand for gold in the first three months of 2005 is up 32%, year-on-year. According to the Silver Institute, statistics for 2004 show that a boom in investor activity was largely responsible for a 36% rise in the silver price to 17-year highs."

Further, the Japanese are apparently lifting the bank deposit guarantee, and that "banks are in trouble in Japan, and the government is removing the safety net that protected Japanese deposit holders." BFI sees this as triggering "increased demand for precious metals."

And these BFI people are big believers in silver, as they note that "If the gold price doubled from current levels, it would be at all-time highs of $850 per ounce. However, if the silver price doubles from current levels, it would on be a one-third of all-time highs of $50." A third! Wow!

To add more urgency to their argument, they note that "silver production has not been able to keep pace with demand for 16 straight years. The result is a dwindling of above-ground supplies to alarmingly low levels."

Perhaps in a similar commodities vein, George Ure at Urban Survival got a letter "Just a note to update you on my conversation with a longshoreman from the Port of Seattle last night.

"The ratio of full (30%) vs. empty (70%) cargo ships leaving the US has stayed the same. We are still buying more than selling (except for scrap and food). What is more important is that beginning in June this year, when the cargo trade usually starts to significantly increase at a seasonal level, trade is slowing. This year, cargo ships are not coming into the port as they did in past years and the work load has been down for those on the docks."

So, if the workload on the docks is down, then that means there is less stuff going to retailers, which means that retailers are not buying as much stuff, which means that consumers are not buying as much stuff. Hey! I thought the economy was supposed to be booming!

The longshoreman said they are the first to know of an upturn or downturn in business. They are now saying that with the downturn of imports, a slowdown in the economy "could happen in 6 months or less." Then they also bring up a little history. "If you remember, last year," they said "the ships were coming in so fast that a waiting line occurred at all the west coast ports. That line is not happening this year."

- To prove that even the US government thinks that people will start running to gold, the U.S Department of the Treasury, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has released a bulletin announcing, and I hope you find this as humorous as Phil Spicer and I, an "interim final rule". Hahahaha! "Interim final"! Hahahaha! If you are finished laughing, the news is that dealers in precious metals, stones or jewels are now "required to establish an anti-money laundering program."

One of the interesting parts is that the dealers are supposed to develop "policies, procedures and internal controls, based on the dealer´s assessment of the money laundering and terrorist financing risk associated with its business." Hahahaha! To be a retailer they have to be experts on the financial impact of geopolitical risk? Hahahaha!

- Loren Steffy of the Houston Chronicle has looked at the advertisements that say things like "Buy Now and Save!" which strikes her as funny, "as if buying and saving are on the same side of the equation. By definition, buying is the absence of saving." Hahaha! Exactly!

But there are apparently a lot of people who actually DO believe that you can "buy now and save", as he notes that "Last year, among U.S. households that have credit cards, the average total debt was $9,300, according to Cardweb.com. At the same time, the household savings rate is essentially zero and has been for several years." And the latest report shows that saving IS now, officially, zero! Zero! We spend every freaking dime!

One of the few places left in America where people do NOT think this is a good idea is (drum roll, please) Texas, which "will soon start requiring high school students to have basic financial literacy." Hahahaha! Basic financial literacy! This is just one more example, as if we needed one more, of the egregiously bad job being done by America´s idiotic educational system!

- Jim Otis of the Optimist notes that insurance and guarantees are not written in stone, as the companies must invest the premiums in the same markets that you do, and they will not fare better than you do, either. "A sometimes overlooked but essential requirement for a good hedge is that there must be a solid guarantee that the agreed benefits really will be paid when the need arises. If the company that is collecting the premiums each month has all of its assets and many policy liabilities in the same 100 year flood plain, that company might be too busy talking to its bankruptcy lawyer to return your frantic phone calls."

- Reuters noted that politicians have gotten an earful from their constituents: "It´s about gas prices, gas prices, gas prices," House Speaker Dennis Hastert said. "Consumers are getting squeezed at the pumps. House Republicans want to do something now."

Perhaps that is why we have the sudden emergence of an enormously expensive energy bill from Congress. Martin Weiss has a nice remark about that outrageously expensive energy bill that is speeding to President Bush´s desk. He says that "It’s a welcome extra bonus for investors in energy. If you are an investor in energy, the bill will not reduce oil prices nor reduce oil imports. It does little to address America’s growing appetite for fuel. And even its proponents agree that it will not reduce America’s reliance on foreign oil imports."

But the whole point of the energy bill is that it will "lavish generous subsidies on many companies. It’s packed with tax breaks — worth about $11.5 billion for the industry. It contains a provision that would give subsidies of up to $1 billion to promote oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. It also includes a tax credit for gas stations to install equipment that could handle an ethanol blend."
What does it add up to? "Bottom line: No end in sight to the energy boom." And, though he was too polite to say so, there is no end to the budget deficits, either, as another result.

We get pretty much the same story from WhiskeyandGunpowder.com, who write that "bookings of supertankers for oil exports from the Middle East soared to the highest monthly level this year in July -- and shipping costs doubled along the way, according to Bloomberg. Oil production in Norway -- usually the No. 3 global exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia -- has hit an 11-year-low...and China´s oil-thirsty economy is humming along at 9.5% growth, shrugging off any and all efforts to slow it down."

"What´s more," they write, "speaking of OPEC, the Saudis also recently told the world´s leading industrial powers that OPEC will not be able to meet Western oil demand in 10-15 years. This was the first time -- ever -- that OPEC has made such an announcement."

This is oddly in line with a report in the Daily Reckoning, which stated "Last year, according to testimony given to the U.S. Congress, more oil was expended looking for new oil resources than was actually discovered. Even OPEC isn´t immune from draining wells. Oil production has fallen so precipitously in OPEC member Indonesia that it has turned into an oil importing nation, and may have to withdraw from the cartel."

In spite of all this, Daniel Yergin and his Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) are saying that The Mogambo is a big stupid idiot who makes disgusting noises when he eats. Well, they don´t actually come out and say that in so many words, but you can get the drift by reading between the lines, as they are predicting that there is nothing to worry about, as we will soon have oil everywhere! CERA thinks that we "will have 6 to 7.5 million barrels per day of excess capacity and we can expect an extended period of lower prices – perhaps by 2007. Petroleum production will be expanding faster than demand over the next 5 years. The report has tabulated 20 to 30 new projects with a capacity of over 75,000 barrels per day that will become available in each and every year until 2010. By then, worldwide production could increase by up to 16 million Bbl/day. However, most of the increased production will come from reworking existing fields, rather than new oil discoveries, and after 2010 the majority of new production will come from OPEC."

I am unable to comment, as my eyes rolled around in disbelief, my tongue cleaved to the roof of my mouth, and my brain locked onto the word "huh?" when I read those words. So it is fortunate for us that Ronald R. Cooke has taken a look at this CERA stuff, and found that they made 18 big, big assumptions. So he wrote a rebuttal, "Oil Depletion? It´s All In The Assumptions" on the FinancialSense.com. He writes, charitably, that "CERA´s optimistic views are in the minority. In the final analysis, however, the pivotal point for all of these assumptions and scenarios rests on the motivations, political realities, and production capabilities of the Middle East. If they are willing to act in the selfish-best-interest of the industrialized nations, then CERA´s ´Best Case´ scenario is possible." Note that he said "possible," which is akin to my wife saying that it is possible that I will stop acting like a mentally-ill crybaby paranoid homicidal maniac, but we all know how likely THAT is.

The punch line is "If not, we are in for a long period of cultural and economic agony."

Perhaps the CERA people did not talk with Martin Weiss, of the Safe Money Report, who writes "On a per capital basis, China consumes 1.8 barrels of oil per person per year. In the U.S., it’s 25 barrels, or FOURTEEN TIMES MORE. Now, fast forward to 2010, just five years from now. And make the conservative assumption that, despite China’s rapid industrialization and modernization, its per-capita oil consumption will still be about a FIFTH of ours — 5 barrels per year.

"That single event will add at least 8 million barrels per day to worldwide demand. It will require a production increase equivalent to that of another Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer."

- I get a kick out of clowns who see no inflation even when it is beating them over the head, but after all these years, my sense of humor in that area is waning. The astonishing growth in global credit is one of the largest inflations in history, and even though the growth of money and credit is the actual freaking dictionary-definition of "inflation," these guys still say there is no inflation!

Houses are in the biggest price inflation ever witnessed in history, and yet they say there is no inflation! But if this rise in prices is not inflation, then what in the hell is it?

Bonds are also in one of the biggest prices inflations in history, and have now gotten so highly-priced that they are yielding-- even long-term! --less than (after-tax and after-inflation adjustments), the real rate of inflation! But if this rise in prices is not inflation, then what in the hell is it?

Stock prices have risen so much that the SP500 is paying a dividend of 1.8%. The SP500 is priced at $1235, and the SP500 is earning $60, so the P/E is over 20! My Mighty Mogambo Mind (MMM) quickly scans the entire economics literature to try and find a single reference to the idea that "buying stocks at an average P/E multiple of over 20 turned out to be a good idea, everybody who did such a thing got rich, rich rich, and they all lived happily ever after." I comically spin my eyes, wiggle my ears, and after a few seconds making noises that resemble R2D2 from "Star Wars", I announce that the total number of hits resulting from the computer search is zero. Zero! Hahahaha! (Actually, this is a cheap trick, and you can try this the next time you are at a party, as there ARE no such references, anywhere, by anybody, ever). And the reason is that the long-term historical average P/E is much, much lower than that, down around 11 to 14. And so the P/E ratio is, seemingly, destined to go back down to, and probably below, the long-term average. So what in the hell do you think is going to happen? That the earnings were going to go up so much that it brought the P/E down? Hahahaha! I love your sunny optimism!

Jas Jain is not laughing, and with this deadpan look on his face writes, "The US stock market, with S&P 500 as the proxy, was never more over-valued than today, except for period since the bubble of 1990s and a brief period in 1929." And we all know how well stocks worked out BOTH of those times!

Have you noticed how the soundtrack is suddenly dark and gloomy with thunder and lightning? Well, it is there for a purpose. It is there to properly prepare you for the knowledge that what always happens is that the stock prices go down, and people lose their butts, and that makes people stop spending, and that makes earnings of companies go down, which makes the P/E ratios of the companies´ stocks go up, which means that the prices of the stocks have to come down, which makes people lose their butts some more, so they quit spending some more, and that makes the earnings of companies go down, which makes the P/E ratios of their stocks go up, which means that stock prices have to go down, which means people lose some more of their butts, so now they REALLY quit spending, and around and around and around it goes, spreading misery and suffering around so that everybody gets a little.

And yet they say that there is no inflation anywhere. If that is not inflation in stock prices, then what in the hell is it?

And all of this presupposes that you believe the numbers that are being reported, and there is very little reason that you should. As an example of the financial engineering that is rampant in the world, let me point you to Tony Sagami of Money and Markets, who has taken a look at IBM when they reported $1.12 of Q2 profits, "which is 9 cents per share better than the $1.03 Wall Street was expecting. Right? Not so fast!" he says.

"First, the $1.12 excludes 10 cents of costs related to stock options. If you include those 10 cents of true, real, hard compensation expenses, IBM would have missed forecasts by one penny.

"Second, there was a trio of one-time, non-operating costs that IBM used to manufacture two cents of extra profit", which he identifies as "$775 million (29 cents per share) gain from the proceeds of the settlement with Microsoft, a $1.1 billion (45 cents per share) gain from the proceeds from the sale of IBM’s PC division to Lenovo Group in May, and 1.7 billion charge (72 cents per share) to cover the cost of job cuts against earnings for the cost of 14,500 layoffs. That’s a combined 74 cents of one-time gains versus 72 cents of one-time losses."

If you are like me, your head is swimming and you desperately need a beer and a cigarette. But instead of us getting out notepads and calculators, he does the work for us! What a guy! He says "Net result: 2 cents of non-operating gains."

But this is not about IBM or the fact that corruption and accounting fraud is all over the place. No, what we are talking about is inflation. And in keeping with that, the cost of government is going up by leaps and bounds, and everyone agrees that government is a cost to us all. A HUGE cost! Yet these boneheads will stand up in front of me, walk right up to the bars of my padded cell, look me right in the eye and say that there is no inflation! Again, if it is NOT inflation, then what in the hell is it?

Health insurance. Property insurance. Gasoline. Taxes. All of these are going up at double-digit rates. And some of them, like health-care costs and insurance, have been going up like this for years! But if this is not inflation, then what in the hell is it?

And to compound the heart-breaking tragedy, the money that is used in all of these transactions is losing buying power because of all of this monetary insanity crap!

_________________
"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2005 7:32 pm 
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by William R. Clark

(Friday August 05 2005)

"A successful Iranian bourse will solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar´s hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency. Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S. economic dislocations."

"This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous...Having said that, all options are on the table."

-- President George W. Bush, February 2005

Contemporary warfare has traditionally involved underlying conflicts regarding economics and resources. Today these intertwined conflicts also involve international currencies, and thus increased complexity. Current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran extend beyond the publicly stated concerns regarding Iran´s nuclear intentions, and likely include a proposed Iranian "petroeuro" system for oil trade. Similar to the Iraq war, military operations against Iran relate to the macroeconomics of ´petrodollar recycling´ and the unpublicized but real challenge to U.S. dollar supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.

It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat from Saddam´s long-gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining strategic control over Iraq´s hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so maintain the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market. Throughout 2004 information provided by former administration insiders revealed the Bush/Cheney administration entered into office with the intention of toppling Saddam.[1][2] Candidly stated, ´Operation Iraqi Freedom´ was a war designed to install a pro-U.S. government in Iraq, establish multiple U.S military bases before the onset of global Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency ( i.e. "petroeuro").[3] However, subsequent geopolitical events have exposed neoconservative strategy as fundamentally flawed, with Iran moving towards a petroeuro system for international oil trades, while Russia evaluates this option with the European Union.

In 2003 the global community witnessed a combination of petrodollar warfare and oil depletion warfare. The majority of the world´s governments – especially the E.U., Russia and China – were not amused – and neither are the U.S. soldiers who are currently stationed inside a hostile Iraq. In 2002 I wrote an award-winning online essay that asserted Saddam Hussein sealed his fate when he announced on September 2000 that Iraq was no longer going to accept dollars for oil being sold under the UN´s Oil-for-Food program, and decided to switch to the euro as Iraq´s oil export currency.[4] Indeed, my original pre-war hypothesis was validated in a Financial Times article dated June 5, 2003, which confirmed Iraqi oil sales returning to the international markets were once again denominated in U.S. dollars – not euros.

The tender, for which bids are due by June 10, switches the transaction back to dollars -- the international currency of oil sales - despite the greenback´s recent fall in value. Saddam Hussein in 2000 insisted Iraq´s oil be sold for euros, a political move, but one that improved Iraq´s recent earnings thanks to the rise in the value of the euro against the dollar. [5]

The Bush administration implemented this currency transition despite the adverse impact on profits from Iraqi´s export oil sales.[6] (In mid-2003 the euro was valued approx. 13% higher than the dollar, and thus significantly impacted the ability of future oil proceeds to rebuild Iraq´s infrastructure). Not surprisingly, this detail has never been mentioned in the five U.S. major media conglomerates who control 90% of information flow in the U.S., but confirmation of this vital fact provides insight into one of the crucial – yet overlooked – rationales for 2003 the Iraq war.

Concerning Iran, recent articles have revealed active Pentagon planning for operations against its suspected nuclear facilities. While the publicly stated reasons for any such overt action will be premised as a consequence of Iran´s nuclear ambitions, there are again unspoken macroeconomic drivers underlying the second stage of petrodollar warfare – Iran´s upcoming oil bourse. (The word bourse refers to a stock exchange for securities trading, and is derived from the French stock exchange in Paris, the Federation Internationale des Bourses de Valeurs.)

In essence, Iran is about to commit a far greater "offense" than Saddam Hussein´s conversion to the euro for Iraq´s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Beginning in March 2006, the Tehran government has plans to begin competing with New York´s NYMEX and London´s IPE with respect to international oil trades – using a euro-based international oil-trading mechanism.[7] The proposed Iranian oil bourse signifies that without some sort of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project of U.S. global domination, Tehran´s objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on dollar supremacy in the crucial international oil market.

From the autumn of 2004 through August 2005, numerous leaks by concerned Pentagon employees have revealed that the neoconservatives in Washington are quietly – but actively – planning for a possible attack against Iran. In September 2004 Newsweek reported:

Deep in the Pentagon, admirals and generals are updating plans for possible U.S. military action in Syria and Iran. The Defense Department unit responsible for military planning for the two troublesome countries is "busier than ever," an administration official says. Some Bush advisers characterize the work as merely an effort to revise routine plans the Pentagon maintains for all contingencies in light of the Iraq war. More skittish bureaucrats say the updates are accompanied by a revived campaign by administration conservatives and neocons for more hard-line U.S. policies toward the countries…´

…administration hawks are pinning their hopes on regime change in Tehran – by covert means, preferably, but by force of arms if necessary. Papers on the idea have circulated inside the administration, mostly labeled "draft" or "working draft" to evade congressional subpoena powers and the Freedom of Information Act. Informed sources say the memos echo the administration´s abortive Iraq strategy: oust the existing regime, swiftly install a pro-U.S. government in its place (extracting the new regime´s promise to renounce any nuclear ambitions) and get out. This daredevil scheme horrifies U.S. military leaders, and there´s no evidence that it has won any backers at the cabinet level. [8]

Indeed, there are good reasons for U.S. military commanders to be ´horrified´ at the prospects of attacking Iran. In the December 2004 issue of the Atlantic Monthly, James Fallows reported that numerous high-level war-gaming sessions had recently been completed by Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel who has run war games at the National War College for the past two decades.[9] Col. Gardiner summarized the outcome of these war games with this statement, "After all this effort, I am left with two simple sentences for policymakers: You have no military solution for the issues of Iran. And you have to make diplomacy work." Despite Col. Gardiner´s warnings, yet another story appeared in early 2005 that reiterated this administration´s intentions towards Iran. Investigative reporter Seymour Hersh´s article in The New Yorker included interviews with various high-level U.S. intelligence sources. Hersh wrote:

In my interviews [with former high-level intelligence officials], I was repeatedly told that the next strategic target was Iran. Everyone is saying, ´You can´t be serious about targeting Iran. Look at Iraq,´ the former [CIA] intelligence official told me. But the [Bush administration officials] say, ´We´ve got some lessons learned – not militarily, but how we did it politically. We´re not going to rely on agency pissants.´ No loose ends, and that´s why the C.I.A. is out of there. [10]

The most recent, and by far the most troubling, was an article in The American Conservative by intelligence analyst Philip Giraldi. His article, "In Case of Emergency, Nuke Iran," suggested the resurrection of active U.S. military planning against Iran – but with the shocking disclosure that in the event of another 9/11-type terrorist attack on U.S. soil, Vice President **** Cheney´s office wants the Pentagon to be prepared to launch a potential tactical nuclear attack on Iran – even if the Iranian government was not involved with any such terrorist attack against the U.S.:

The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President **** Cheney´s office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing – that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack – but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections. [11]

Why would the Vice President instruct the U.S. military to prepare plans for what could likely be an unprovoked nuclear attack against Iran? Setting aside the grave moral implications for a moment, it is remarkable to note that during the same week this "nuke Iran" article appeared, the Washington Post reported that the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of Iran´s nuclear program revealed that, "Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years."[12] This article carefully noted this assessment was a "consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, [and in] contrast with forceful public statements by the White House." The question remains, Why would the Vice President advocate a possible tactical nuclear attack against Iran in the event of another major terrorist attack against the U.S. – even if Tehran was innocent of involvement?

Perhaps one of the answers relates to the same obfuscated reasons why the U.S. launched an unprovoked invasion to topple the Iraq government – macroeconomics and the desperate desire to maintain U.S. economic supremacy. In essence, petrodollar hegemony is eroding, which will ultimately force the U.S. to significantly change its current tax, debt, trade, and energy policies, all of which are severely unbalanced. World oil production is reportedly "flat out," and yet the neoconservatives are apparently willing to undertake huge strategic and tactical risks in the Persian Gulf. Why? Quite simply – their stated goal is U.S. global domination – at any cost.

To date, one of the more difficult technical obstacles concerning a euro-based oil transaction trading system is the lack of a euro-denominated oil pricing standard, or oil ´marker´ as it is referred to in the industry. The three current oil markers are U.S. dollar denominated, which include the West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. However, since the summer of 2003 Iran has required payments in the euro currency for its European and Asian/ACU exports – although the oil pricing these trades was still denominated in the dollar.[13]

Therefore a potentially significant news story was reported in June 2004 announcing Iran´s intentions to create of an Iranian oil bourse. This announcement portended competition would arise between the Iranian oil bourse and London´s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), as well as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). [Both the IPE and NYMEX are owned by U.S. consortium, and operated by an Atlanta-based corporation, IntercontinentalExchange, Inc.]

The macroeconomic implications of a successful Iranian bourse are noteworthy. Considering that in mid-2003 Iran switched its oil payments from E.U. and ACU customers to the euro, and thus it is logical to assume the proposed Iranian bourse will usher in a fourth crude oil marker – denominated in the euro currency. This event would remove the main technical obstacle for a broad-based petroeuro system for international oil trades. From a purely economic and monetary perspective, a petroeuro system is a logical development given that the European Union imports more oil from OPEC producers than does the U.S., and the E.U. accounted for 45% of exports sold to the Middle East. (Following the May 2004 enlargement, this percentage likely increased).

Despite the complete absence of coverage from the five U.S. corporate media conglomerates, these foreign news stories suggest one of the Federal Reserve´s nightmares may begin to unfold in the spring of 2006, when it appears that international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $60 dollars on the NYMEX and IPE - or purchase a barrel of oil for €45 - €50 euros via the Iranian Bourse. This assumes the euro maintains its current 20-25% appreciated value relative to the dollar – and assumes that some sort of US "intervention" is not launched against Iran. The upcoming bourse will introduce petrodollar versus petroeuro currency hedging, and fundamentally new dynamics to the biggest market in the world - global oil and gas trades. In essence, the U.S. will no longer be able to effortlessly expand credit via U.S. Treasury bills, and the dollar´s demand/liquidity value will fall.

It is unclear at the time of writing if this project will be successful, or could it prompt overt or covert U.S. interventions – thereby signaling the second phase of petrodollar warfare in the Middle East. Regardless of the potential U.S. response to an Iranian petroeuro system, the emergence of an oil exchange market in the Middle East is not entirely surprising given the domestic peaking and decline of oil exports in the U.S. and U.K, in comparison to the remaining oil reserves in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. What we are witnessing is a battle for oil currency supremacy. If Iran´s oil bourse becomes a successful alternative for international oil trades, it would challenge the hegemony currently enjoyed by the financial centers in both London (IPE) and New York (NYMEX), a factor not overlooked in the following (UK) Guardian article:

Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and Opec producers that could threaten the supremacy of London´s International Petroleum Exchange.

…Some industry experts have warned the Iranians and other OPEC producers that western exchanges are controlled by big financial and oil corporations, which have a vested interest in market volatility. [emphasis added]

The IPE, bought in 2001 by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, was unwilling to discuss the Iranian move yesterday. "We would not have any comment to make on it at this stage," said an IPE spokeswoman. [14]

During an important speech in April 2002, Mr. Javad Yarjani, an OPEC executive, described three pivotal events that would facilitate an OPEC transition to euros.[15] He stated this would be based on (1) if and when Norway´s Brent crude is re-dominated in euros, (2) if and when the U.K. adopts the euro, and (3) whether or not the euro gains parity valuation relative to the dollar, and the EU´s proposed expansion plans were successful. Notably, both of the later two criteria have transpired: the euro´s valuation has been above the dollar since late 2002, and the euro-based E.U. enlarged in May 2004 from 12 to 22 countries. Despite recent "no" votes by French and Dutch voters regarding a common E.U. Constitution, from a macroeconomic perspective, these domestic disagreements do no reduce the euro currency´s trajectory in the global financial markets – and from Russia and OPEC´s perspective – do not adversely impact momentum towards a petroeuro. In the meantime, the U.K. remains uncomfortably juxtaposed between the financial interests of the U.S. banking nexus (New York/Washington) and the E.U. financial centers (Paris/Frankfurt).

The most recent news reports indicate the oil bourse will start trading on March 20, 2006, coinciding with the Iranian New Year.[16] The implementation of the proposed Iranian oil Bourse – if successful in utilizing the euro as its oil transaction currency standard – essentially negates the previous two criteria as described by Mr. Yarjani regarding the solidification of a petroeuro system for international oil trades. It should also be noted that throughout 2003-2004 both Russia and China significantly increased their central bank holdings of the euro, which appears to be a coordinated move to facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the euro as a second World Reserve Currency. [17] [18] China´s announcement in July 2005 that is was re-valuing the yuan/RNB was not nearly as important as its decision to divorce itself form a U.S. dollar peg by moving towards a "basket of currencies" – likely to include the yen, euro, and dollar.[19] Additionally, the Chinese re-valuation immediately lowered their monthly imported "oil bill" by 2%, given that oil trades are still priced in dollars, but it is unclear how much longer this monopoly arrangement will last.

Furthermore, the geopolitical stakes for the Bush administration were raised dramatically on October 28, 2004, when Iran and China signed a huge oil and gas trade agreement (valued between $70 - $100 billion dollars.) [20] It should also be noted that China currently receives 13% of its oil imports from Iran. In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, the U.S.-administered Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) nullified previous oil lease contracts from 1997-2002 that France, Russia, China and other nations had established under the Saddam regime. The nullification of these contracts worth a reported $1.1 trillion created political tensions between the U.S and the European Union, Russia and China. The Chinese government may fear the same fate awaits their oil investments in Iran if the U.S. were able to attack and topple the Tehran government. Despite U.S. desires to enforce petrodollar hegemony, the geopolitical risks of an attack on Iran´s nuclear facilities would surely create a serious crisis between Washington and Beijing.

It is increasingly clear that a confrontation and possible war with Iran may transpire during the second Bush term. Clearly, there are numerous tactical risks regarding neoconservative strategy towards Iran. First, unlike Iraq, Iran has a robust military capability. Secondly, a repeat of any "Shock and Awe" tactics is not advisable given that Iran has installed sophisticated anti-ship missiles on the Island of Abu Musa, and therefore controls the critical Strait of Hormuz – where all of the Persian Gulf bound oil tankers must pass.[22] The immediate question for Americans? Will the neoconservatives attempt to intervene covertly and/or overtly in Iran during 2005 or 2006 in a desperate effort to prevent the initiation of euro-denominated international crude oil sales? Commentators in India are quite correct in their assessment that a U.S. intervention in Iran is likely to prove disastrous for the United States, making matters much worse regarding international terrorism, not to the mention potential effects on the U.S. economy.

…If it [ U.S.] intervenes again, it is absolutely certain it will not be able to improve the situation…There is a better way, as the constructive engagement of Libya´s Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has shown...Iran is obviously a more complex case than Libya, because power resides in the clergy, and Iran has not been entirely transparent about its nuclear programme, but the sensible way is to take it gently, and nudge it to moderation. Regime change will only worsen global Islamist terror, and in any case, Saudi Arabia is a fitter case for democratic intervention, if at all. [21]

A successful Iranian bourse will solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar´s hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency. Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S. economic dislocations. Multilateral compromise with the EU and OPEC regarding oil currency is certainly preferable to an ´Operation Iranian Freedom,´ or perhaps another CIA-backed coup such as operation "Ajax" from 1953. Despite the impressive power of the U.S. military, and the ability of our intelligence agencies to facilitate ´interventions,´ it would be perilous and possibly ruinous for the U.S. to intervene in Iran given the dire situation in Iraq. The Monterey Institute of International Studies warned of the possible consequences of a preemptive attack on Iran´s nuclear facilities:

An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities…could have various adverse effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East and the world. Most important, in the absence of evidence of an Iranian illegal nuclear program, an attack on Iran´s nuclear facilities by the U.S. or Israel would be likely to strengthen Iran´s international stature and reduce the threat of international sanctions against Iran. [23]

Synopsis:

It is not yet clear if a U.S. military expedition will occur in a desperate attempt to maintain petrodollar supremacy. Regardless of the recent National Intelligence Estimate that down-played Iran´s potential nuclear weapons program, it appears increasingly likely the Bush administration may use the specter of nuclear weapon proliferation as a pretext for an intervention, similar to the fears invoked in the previous WMD campaign regarding Iraq. If recent stories are correct regarding Cheney´s plan to possibly use a another 9/11 terrorist attack as the pretext or casus belli for a U.S. aerial attack against Iran, this would confirm the Bush administration is prepared to undertake a desperate military strategy to thwart Iran´s nuclear ambitions, while simultaneously attempting to prevent the Iranian oil Bourse from initiating a euro-based system for oil trades.

However, as members of the U.N. Security Council; China, Russia and E.U. nations such as France and Germany would likely veto any U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Resolution calling the use of force without solid proof of Iranian culpability in a major terrorist attack. A unilateral U.S. military strike on Iran would isolate the U.S. government in the eyes of the world community, and it is conceivable that such an overt action could provoke other industrialized nations to strategically abandon the dollar en masse. Indeed, such an event would create pressure for OPEC or Russia to move towards a petroeuro system in an effort to cripple the U.S. economy and its global military presence. I refer to this in my book as the "rogue nation hypothesis."

While central bankers throughout the world community would be extremely reluctant to ´dump the dollar,´ the reasons for any such drastic reaction are likely straightforward from their perspective – the global community is dependent on the oil and gas energy supplies found in the Persian Gulf. Hence, industrialized nations would likely move in tandem on the currency exchange markets in an effort to thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy of dominating the world´s largest hydrocarbon energy supply. Any such efforts that resulted in a dollar currency crisis would be undertaken – not to cripple the U.S. dollar and economy as punishment towards the American people per se – but rather to thwart further unilateral warfare and its potentially destructive effects on the critical oil production and shipping infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Barring a U.S. attack, it appears imminent that Iran´s euro-denominated oil bourse will open in March 2006. Logically, the most appropriate U.S. strategy is compromise with the E.U. and OPEC towards a dual-currency system for international oil trades.

Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.

-- James Madison, Political Observations, 1795

Footnotes:

[1]. Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O´ Neill, Simon & Schuster publishers (2004)

[2]. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America´s War on Terror, Free Press (2004)

[3]. William Clark, "Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War with Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth," January 2003 (updated January 2004)
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

[4]. Peter Philips, Censored 2004, The Top 25 Censored News Stories, Seven Stories Press, (2003) General website for Project Censored: http://www.projectcensored.org/
Story #19: U.S. Dollar vs. the Euro: Another Reason for the Invasion of Iraq
http://www.projectcensored.org/publicat ... 04/19.html

[5]. Carol Hoyos and Kevin Morrison, "Iraq returns to the international oil market," Financial Times, June 5, 2003

[6]. Faisal Islam, "Iraq nets handsome profit by dumping dollar for euro," [UK] Guardian, February 16, 2003
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/iraq/sto ... 44,00.html

[7]. "Oil bourse closer to reality," IranMania.com, December 28, 2004. Also see: "Iran oil bourse wins authorization," Tehran Times, July 26, 2005

[8]. "War-Gaming the Mullahs: The U.S. weighs the price of a pre-emptive strike," Newsweek, September 27 issue, 2004. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6039135/site/newsweek/

[9]. James Fallows, ´Will Iran be Next?,´ Atlantic Monthly, December 2004, pgs. 97 – 110

[10]. Seymour Hersh, "The Coming Wars," The New Yorker, January 24th – 31st issue, 2005, pgs. 40-47
Posted online January 17, 2005. Online: http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?050124fa_fact

[11]. Philip Giraldi, "In Case of Emergency, Nuke Iran," American Conservative, August 1, 2005

[12]. Dafina Linzer, "Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements," Washington Post, August 2, 2005; Page A01

[13]. C. Shivkumar, "Iran offers oil to Asian union on easier terms," The Hindu Business Line (June 16, ` 2003). http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/bli ... 7/stories/
2003061702380500.htm

[14]. Terry Macalister, "Iran takes on west´s control of oil trading," The [UK] Guardian, June 16, 2004
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/stor ... 44,00.html

[15]. "The Choice of Currency for the Denomination of the Oil Bill," Speech given by Javad Yarjani, Head of OPEC´s Petroleum Market Analysis Dept, on The International Role of the Euro (Invited by the Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs during Spain´s Presidency of the EU) (April 14, 2002, Oviedo, Spain)
http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/s ... nApr14.htm

[16]. "Iran´s oil bourse expects to start by early 2006," Reuters, October 5, 2004 http://www.iranoilgas.com

[17]. "Russia shifts to euro as foreign currency reserves soar," AFP, June 9, 2003
http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/7214-3.cfm

[18]. "China to diversify foreign exchange reserves," China Business Weekly, May 8, 2004
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/do ... 328744.htm

[19]. Richard S. Appel, "The Repercussions from the Yuan´s Revaluation," kitco.com, July 27, 2005
http://www.kitco.com/ind/appel/jul272005.html

[20]. China, Iran sign biggest oil & gas deal,´ China Daily, October 31, 2004. Online: Online: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/do ... 387140.htm

[21]. "Terror & regime change: Any US invasion of Iran will have terrible consequences," News Insight: Public Affairs Magazine, June 11, 2004 http://www.indiareacts.com/archivedebat ... &ctg=World

[22]. Analysis of Abu Musa Island, http://www.globalsecurity.org
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world ... u-musa.htm

[23]. Sammy Salama and Karen Ruster, "A Preemptive Attack on Iran´s Nuclear Facilities: Possible Consequences," Monterry Institute of International Studies, August 12, 2004 (updated September 9, 2004) http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040812.htm

_________________
"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:27 pm 
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some more of "I knew that" revelations and strongly worded research

Gov´t Manipulation of stock market detailed in new Report

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 6, 2005--A major Canadian financial management firm that a year ago published a compilation of evidence of central bank manipulation of the gold price has just done the same in regard to the U.S. stock market and has reached a similar conclusion.

The new report is titled "Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam," and has been published by Sprott Asset Management of Toronto. It was written by the firm´s president, John P. Embry, and his assistant, Andrew Hepburn, and concludes that the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market so many times that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market."

The new report relies largely on reports of news organizations and the essays and research papers of economics academics that, as might be expected, have not been well-publicized in the United States. But some of these reports have been circulated by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee over the years.

The Sprott report does not maintain that the government should never intervene in the stock market; it recognizes that certain emergencies may argue strongly for temporary intervention, such as the 1987 stock market crash and the terrorist attacks of September 2001. But, the Sprott report notes, frequent surreptitious intervention, conducted through intermediaries, the government´s favored financial houses in New York, gives those intermediaries enormous advantages over ordinary investors. Frequent intervention, the Sprott report adds also makes it impossible to distinguish between national emergencies and political expediency.

The Sprott report concludes:

"Given the available information, we do not believe there can be any doubt that the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market. Too much credible information exists to deny this. Yet virtually no one ever mentions government intervention publicly, preferring instead to pretend as if such activities have never taken place and never would.

"It is time that market participants, the media and, most of all, the government acknowledge what should be blatantly obvious to anyone who reviews the public record on the matter: These markets have been interfered with on numerous occasions. Our primary concern is that what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market.

"We have not taken a position on the wisdom of intervention in this paper, largely because exceptional circumstances could argue for it. In many respects, for instance, the apparent rescue after the 1987 crash and the planned intervention in the wake of September 11 were very defensible. Administered in extremely small doses and with the most stringent safeguards and transparency, market stabilization could be justified.

"But a policy enacted in secret and knowingly withheld from the body politic has created a huge disconnect between those knowledgeable about such activities and the majority of the public, who have no clue whatsoever.

"There can be no doubt that the firms responsible for implementing government interventions enjoy an enviable position unavailable to other investors. Whether they have been indemnified against potential losses or simply made privy to non-public government policy, the major Wall Street firms evidently responsible for preventing plunges no longer must compete on anywhere near a level playing field. It is most unfair that the immensely powerful have been further ensconced in their perched positions and thus effectively insulated from the competitive market forces ostensibly present in our society.

"In addition to creating a privileged class, the manipulation also has little democratic legitimacy in the sense that the citizenry has not given its consent. This has tangible ramifications. By not informing the public, successive U.S. administrations have employed a dangerous policy response that is subject to the worst possible abuse. In this regard, the line between national necessity and political expediency has no doubt been perilously blurred.

"We can only urge people to see what the evidence indicates and debate what is and ought to be a very contentious matter. The time for such a public discussion is long overdue."

The Sprott report can be found in Adobe Acrobat format at the Sprott Internet site here: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/ ... leHand.pdf

_________________
"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject: NWO proposed by UN unfolding...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:14 am 
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[b]UN unveils plan to release untapped wealth of...$7 trillion (and solve the world's problems at a stroke) [/b]

The most potent threats to life on earth - global warming, health pandemics, poverty and armed conflict - could be ended by moves that would unlock $7 trillion - $7,000,000,000,000 (£3.9trn) - of previously untapped wealth, the United Nations claims today.

[b]The price? An admission that the nation-state is an old-fashioned concept that has no role to play in a modern globalised world where financial markets have to be harnessed rather than simply condemned.[/b]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/pol ... 341967.ece

Corporate psychopaths anyone?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:30 am 
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7 trillion is not enough to serve the debt of even one country. The U.S. federal debt is currently at 8 trillion and counting. If we include other countries debts then it goes over 15 trillion.. and then you need to elevate the life level of half the planet which is some significant money.

All in all, the money doesn't add up.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:27 pm 
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Problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.

-Einstein

We have the people who create most of the current world problems proposing a solution... how ironic!


Einstein`s approach to solving big problems was to open up to new ways of thinking, redefine original ideas about every problems, and continually consider alternates.

This mental process is not rocket science! It is simply paying attention and learning when to change the way you think. An open mind can better appreciate and recognize new information and new ideas.
- It`s also being aware that new questions can change the way you respond and resolve any problem. Here are five easy to remember mental guidelines to help you shift and keep your mental gears moving:


Nurture in yourself an ability to see and consider contradictory or impossible ideas.

Develop an awareness about being too attached to your own ideas.

Suspect "the ONE right answer," especially if it`s your only answer.

Decide what to do from your best choice between several right answers.

Consciously look for alternatives.
Dr. Edward De Bono, renowned creativity specialist, suggests, "If only two possibilities are evident, choose the third!" This approach will cost you some time.
- It does require extra time to be flexible enough to find, evaluate and integrate other alternatives.
- Flexible thinking improves the likelihood that a change in your consciousness can occur.
- Rarely is everything so urgent that no time to think is possible.
- Often the criteria that defines a worthy problem needs to be challenged.
- How much of your work is really mission critical, long term and strategic?
- Can you take time to think and then act accordingly?

Einstein was impervious to most of our everyday dilemmas. He dealt with extra-personal, BIG problems, like "Simplifying the Universe."
- Since the rest of us have to deal with this universe, here are four more proven ways to help you challenge and change your thinking:

Keep things as simple as possible, but no simpler.

Conserve your mental and physical energy for high priority projects.

Create an environment that welcomes independent thinking from every level.

Set an example for thorough thinking, reflection and overview.

It`s true that Einstein revolutionized concepts about time and space, "The Laws of the Universe are not relative," says Einstein, "Only our perceptions of them are."
- He was able to stretch his perceptions and continue working on a problem for as long as it took, even decades if necessary.
- If your timetable is shorter, you can still learn from his diligence to regularly challenge assumptions.

"My only talent for genius," says Einstein, "is my inquisitiveness."
- What can you regularly do to become a receptive place for good questions; your own and others`. Be slow to take "No," or other easy answers. Einstein`s advice is relevant, "Never let yourself be seduced by any problem, no matter how difficult!"

Article excerpted from The Alessandra Report (April, 1996)
Copyright Arden Bercovitz, Ph.D., CSP. All rights reserved.


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 Post subject: The End of Dollar Hegemony
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2006 11:32 pm 
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The End of Dollar Hegemony

by Congressman Ron Paul

Before the US House of Representatives, February 15, 2006

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul303.html

Full Video below.

http://recap.fednet.net/archive/Buildas ... &sExpire=0


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:00 pm 
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Solaris wrote:
INTERVIEW 4

Sarah: "How will they dismantle our hard currency?"

Dr. Neruda: "There will be a gradual de-valuation of the stock markets worldwide. Americans in particular have become accustomed to easy money production within the stock markets, as well as lavish lifestyles. This will not be permitted to continue indefinitely. Recessions will occur in waves until the value of currency is called into question.


BLOOMBERG Columnists

The U.S. dollar is no longer, in our opinion is no longer, (seen) as a stable currency and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time,'' Fan said, speaking in English, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``So the real issue is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more manageable reference, say euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified systems.''

Paul Donovan, London-based senior global economist at UBS AG, seemed to speak for many traders and investors when he said: ``This in fact is a scenario we consider to be highly likely.'' Certainly more likely than, say, China letting the yuan trade freely.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... BBmwvtNuxA



Solaris wrote this in 2005 look at us now.

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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 4:29 pm 
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Once dubbed the 8th largest economy on earth, California is now grinding to a halt. 46 other states are projected to fail by June 2009.

From the 1st of February, 2009 California will no longer pay welfare checks, issue tax refunds, or provide scholarships for students.

Calif. employees forced to take off without pay
California drivers who needed to renew their licenses or registration found no one to help Friday at the Department of Motor Vehicles. The doors to the state health agency were locked, too.
Even Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's emergency services office was dark.
Hundreds of state offices closed because there was nobody to run them: More than 200,000 state employees had to take the day off Friday without pay to help ease California's budget crisis.
Full article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_us/california_furloughs


so what does this have to do with "elimination of hard curency?" CA is issuing IOUs that will serve as a form of cash...until its economy is restored....strange, isn't it...we have enough money to bail out (international)banks, and send troops to Iraq, but none for the citizens of california...

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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 5:52 pm 
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maybe food will become money?

The BDI Index Points To Worldwide Disaster
By James Wickstrom
2-7-9

Please be made aware that I am not interested in your feedback or dribble to me on the information you are about to read. Just understand and ponder the information and how it is going to relate to you, your family, your loved ones, your friends, and to your Nation as a whole.

Most of the masses haven't pulled their heads out of their rectums yet as to their Super Bowl fantasy. Well, REALITY is about ready to kick them in the ass like they have never been kicked before, and for many, will never be kicked again.

The scope as to the gutting out, sell-out, and vicious TREASON by the political and religious elements (note it is plural) of the United States has been the greatest in all of modern history. Don't let your eyes deceive you as to what you are going to read.

John Wayne is not going to come out of his grave and save you or this nation. Tinker Bell is not going to show up with her magic wand and save the day. It is time to suck it up and face the music of forthcoming violence and suffering like never seen before in the United States and throughout the world.

For over 30 years I have been ostracized, ridiculed, scoffed at, thrown in prison, had my home destroyed, and looked upon as an outcast of this Nation. The same Nation I went to war for during Vietnam. If you have one ounce of reasoning and common sense left in your head, what you are going read is going to send you for a jolt. Please share this with all who you feel would like to know and understand.

Thank you.
Dr. James P. Wickstrom, D. Litt.

http://posse-comitatususa.blogspot.com
www.jameswickstrom.com

Subject: Baltic Dry Index
(Shipping situation that effects all of us)



I've been discussing the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with everyone I can for months now. I started following it in June of 2008. It's not a traded index so no one profits from the index itself, which makes it virtually manipulation proof. It is what it is and that doesn't bode well for any of us.

OK, we have 26 shipping routes around the world that the BDI looks at. Shipping stocks are slaves to the BDI. Capesize Ships (over 100,000 tons) make up only 10% of the World Fleet but move 62% of Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 35/40, China 20, Brazil 40-50, S. Africa 1-7). Panamax Ships (60,000-80,000 tons) make up 19% of the world fleet and move 20% of the Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 40-60, China 20-35, Brazil 3-12, S Africa 0-1). There is a third and fourth ship size but they are quite small and they aren't moving either.

If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day.

If the BDI is wrong it will be an historic first. The BDI is used by bankers, financial experts, brokers, traders and everyone in high-end finance to assess the global financial condition and the availability of products worldwide.

The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down. NOTHING is moving. Because this spells disaster for a country that produces little and imports everything I have been intently blogging about the subject and asking people to view a short video I have posted (8 minutes) on:

http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB). As the chart below proves, back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide.

This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.

I have urgently asked each of you to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will
have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of you laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of you going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh.

I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September. For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped.

There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since June of this year and it is only going to get worse. If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death.

The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history. We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to hell. ...


Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.

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"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 4:18 pm 
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Money-Power Grid (MPG) – "The reason for the Human Mind System to exist is for the Elite to exercise control over the Money-Power Grid. Money is the prime objective of the Elite because it imbues power to those who possess it. Money takes many forms, including assets of precious metals and petroleum, land or real estate, minerals, and products and services. Money is the “God” of the Elite and their banks are the religious institutions in which they can worship their God.

The corporate elite, government elite, underground elite, and banking elite constitute the MPG controllers. Those in positions of power, especially within the banking sector, are beholden to the MPG and will do everything possible to tighten their controls of the MPG and manipulate the human family to serve their agenda." Answer 2 from James, PCI

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"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 3:44 am 
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This is worth watching in relation to James and Dr. Neruda interviews.

http://www.escapetheillusion.com/blog/2 ... ic-agenda/


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 3:47 pm 
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here is another detailed vid that will help you understand who when where what and why...

it is worth three hours of you time... it also offers SOLUTIONS...

please share: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 3936&hl=en

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"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 4:55 pm 
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I am watching the video on what you put in here recently starduster and its really quite scary as well as interesting but was there not something that Jamisson said about the group, Incunabula, was really the one who had the most control? I have been looking for that part that said that and was not sure if it was in the interviews by Sarah or Project Camelot? But I went to see if I could find anything on them online and nothing and yet you can find much on the Illuminati which goes to show me that the Illuminati is the one not in full control!! Why would they be so much about them and yet nothing on the Incunabula? Perhaps because they are more discreet and therefore behind this massive money problems we are having? If that is true I also remember reading about what James said that they do not want this earth destroyed in form and fashion and seek just to have control? Another Anu in the lurking in human form perhaps? but yet not Anu? I think what I really want to know is when all this control will go away, and allow us to be who we truly are? But this video is still going on and so I am off to finish watching it , thanks for this!


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 5:23 pm 
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Talk about what was missing in our history growing up??? Jefferson and Madison both disagreed with this system going into private banking? Did no one pay attn. back then??


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:44 pm 
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The Inculabula are the invisable elite that are the main movers and shakers and they are referred to in the Dr. Neruda interview 4.


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:51 pm 
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yes, Dr N revealed that they are such a small (8 at the most) and invisible group, we will never discover who they are...yet, one can be sure that it is them that tell the bankers when to make their moves.

this movie was made BEFORE the 96 election...and stands as a witness to its truthfulness... I do not say this without deep regret, but I believe we have gone well past the point of no return...while it is true that "they" are still waiting for some "crisis" to blame our collapse upon, they are still, very much in control...while others may disagree, I am certain we will see the manifestation of a one world government in our immediate future...and the uninformed masses rush to embrace THE solution that requires they surrender their souls.

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"...to know this information and then remain passive—a pure observer—is a programmed response, and that is not an answer to how do I best serve truth? It is a denial of truth.” 5th Interview


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:45 am 
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That movie was very interesting indeed and what a lot they left out in history! But then I can understand why they did that but had they not? Maybe we would have been in better shape, but even thats too late! I do believe what you are saying that eventually we will be under a one world banking system soon and thats real sad because there goes our choices in that matter. But knowing that there was some presidents that were knowlegdeable on these matters and did not want anything to do with it was heartfelt I believe is the word. Its sad that the future presidents did not pay attention to it at all! So in my mind its them selling our souls to whomever is the highest bidder! So all in all it does not make sense to for us to be doing this stimulus thing as it is only going to get worse than it already is. Its like we have no say so whatsoever in this do we? Yet to listen to the people on this stimulus , they are thinking the way I thought too :oops: that we are going to be saved perhaps. That maybe just maybe we might get pulled out of this but I don't think so.


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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2009 2:40 am 
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Hard currency is different because soft currency is more tracable...the action of the user is captured...indeed money can just as easily be a gift to humanity as a curse - it is all in the way values are determined.

Again.

Money is not the root of all evil

like 'god' or 'the force' it can be used by all for whatever reason required.

look deeper and all money is really is an expression of personal value invested into something seen as worthwhile.

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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2009 2:34 pm 
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Please forgive me for not being on as school is about out, and my garden is done yeehawww, and now its all about catching up with whats going on here! I intend to get to it tonite and want to read all that I have missed out on! See you all later!


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:51 am 
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Alex wrote:
7 trillion is not enough to serve the debt of even one country. The U.S. federal debt is currently at 8 trillion and counting. If we include other countries debts then it goes over 15 trillion.. and then you need to elevate the life level of half the planet which is some significant money.

All in all, the money doesn't add up.



Yep it is an elaborate Sleight of hand ... just exactly what is it about the fact that billions of human beings are convinced they owe for the priviledge of simply being?

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 Post subject: Re: Elimination of hard currency...
PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 9:50 am 
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Quote:
Yep it is an elaborate Sleight of hand ... just exactly what is it about the fact that billions of human beings are convinced they owe for the priviledge of simply being?
_________________


Yes, this is so true...we are definitely in a slave mentality, always in debt to something/someone. It will be good when this thought is changed among many,, that they are in debt to no one. Especially nice to envision a time when it does not take a lifetime of work to own 4 walls and a roof.


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